I've been doing some research regarding the necessity for harvesting in Sudbury, Ontario, .

My initial literature review actually indicates that it is less necessary the more our planet warms, as this area can expect to increase (significantly) between now and 2050, according to a pair of peer-reviewed sources that were published in 2016.

This is not the result I was expecting, especially considering:

Sudbury, Ontario has warmed by 1.8C so far and is projected to warm by between 2C - 6.8C by 2100 — via @CarbonBrief carbonbrief.org/mapped-how-eve

That said, it does reinforce my anecdotal experiences of wetter weather over the past few years...

is crazy.

Still more scholarly sources are needed, so I've more digging to do.

Maybe there's something on changing evaporation rates due to increased temperature that would be of value?


So yeah, this research project took a heck of a turn.

Upon deep diving the two climate modeling papers, it turns out one of them basically ended their data collection around 1990, which explains why the precipitation projections for the 2030s, 2050s, and 2080s seem a little strange.

The other separated snowfall from precipitation and used the amount of snowfall in cm instead of the moisture density, so half their projection is basically useless. I'm not sure how that got past the peer review stage, but maybe it has something to do with the researcher being from Brazil and not really understanding snow? For people unfamiliar with it, snow can be confusing, so I'll cut him some slack.

Moving to my 3 scholarly sources on harvesting... I'll name them Virginia, Poland, and NorCal after where they were focused.

All agreed that it is possible to capture enough rainwater for outdoor vegetable , provided you had enough storage capacity. The Poland research even went into detail about converting buildings of different types to use rainwater internally.

They all also agreed that cost may be an issue (>$1.4k US for NorCal to provide a reliable, potable water supply year round, Poland's pricing was in the $100k US range because of major plumbing retrofits).

Finally, they also all agree that the effect on mitigation was insignificant, with the Virginia paper even using a 100% adoption simulation for their test area.

This info all helps, but still doesn't bring my research to an end. It does let me stop looking at wastewater mitigation, and it certainly provides some great direction for calculating water needs (NorCal was beautifully detailed in that respect).

I'll have to update the precipitation trends myself, using updated data from Environment Canada through 2020. Combining that with water needs calculations and the water/wastewater rates in Greater Sudbury will give me a full answer to my original research question.

Sadly, PRECIS is no longer taking applications for more work (not that I'd likely get everything back in time for my final presentation), so I won't be able to update the probability models.

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